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THE FOURTH INTERNATIONAL SARIGERME WIND ENERGY WORKSHOP

LOBBY FOR WIND ENERGY



presented by

ERGUN OZAKAT





IBEROTEL SARIGERME PARK

ORTACA

TURKEY


6-9 June, 2000


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CAPITAL CITY SYNDROME

THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORT CIRCUITS OR BY- PASSES INHERENT IN THE COMMUNICATION CHANNELS AMONGST THE CAPITAL CITY PEOPLE. THE SYNDROME BEGINS WHEN THE POLITICIANS AND THE EMPLOYEES HAVING CONFIDENTIAL INSIDE KNOWLEDGE START SHARING THIS INFORMATION WITH THE OUTSIDERS.

THIS PECULIAR SYMBIOTIC SYSTEM MAY OR MAY NOT BE ILLEGAL BUT SOMEHOW TURNS TO BE BENEFICIAL AND FINANCIALLY REWARDING TO ITS ABUSERS.

THE SYSTEM STARTS FEEDING ITSELF BY CREATING OBSTRUCTIONS. THE BENEFITS ARE DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL TO THE OBSTRUCTIONS CREATED. THIS CHRONICALLY GROWING UNCONTROLLED SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TAKES OVER THE LOGIC OF THE WHOLE DECISION MECHANISMS.

THE AUTHORITY IS DIRECTED TO CREATE OBSTRUCTIONS INSTEAD OF SOLUTIONS. GRANTING PERMISSIONS - SO CALLED SOLUTIONS - TO THE ARTIFICIALLY CREATED PROBLEMS. WASTE OF TIME AND GREAT EFFORTS IN LENGTHY MEETINGS, WASTE FOR SEEKING HIGHEST COURT LEGAL AUTHORIZATION ARE IN THE STAGE. THE WELL KNOWN DEVIL TREE - A FRANKENSTEIN - IS NOW CREATED, RUNNING AT FULL SPEED ON A FAST LANE TO ITS DESTRUCTIVE DESTINY.


TOKYO, WASHINGTON D.C., LONDON, PARIS ALL SHARE THIS SYNDROME MORE OR LESS.

THE AVOIDANCE OF THE FACT STARTS BY REALIZING THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS PHENOMENA AND BY BEING TRANSPARENT. THE ONLY PERMANENT CURE FOR THIS INJUSTICE SEEMS TO BE THE DE-CENTRALIZATION OF THE GOVERNMENTS.


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HOW CHANGES TAKE PLACE IN TURKEY

&

STAGES OF CHANGE

1. HOW TO SAND DOWN THE OLD IDEAS

Supply convincing intelligent information with enthusiasm and persistance about the virtues of your new idea. Be prepared to be called"UTOPIST"-mildest way of being insulted. You should endure, be calm when facts are hidden or given with misleading statements. Be able to pursue in good manner the longevity of your ideas.


2. CONVINCING OF ONE IMPORTANT PERSON

Dedicated involvement in the elimination or reduction of fears and resistances. Presenting courageous solutions with empathy for the immediate questions that may arise with the proposed change. Doing nothing - is not an intelligent way to challenge the future.


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SOME EXAMPLES OF SUCCESSFULL CHANGE STORIES
(1, 2, 3 ARE VERBAL PRESENTATION)

1. STOCK DIVIDEND LAW

2. WIRELESS LAW


3. PROTECTION OF TURKISH LIRA LAW - DEVIL'S TREE


4. HOW STRONG-RESISTANCE TO CHANGE CREATES BONANZA


5. FIRST WIND ENERGY PERMISSION OF TURKEY


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LARGE FOREIGN INVESTMENTS NEEDED

-A SELF CREATED CRISIS -

BY CHRONICAL POSTPONEMENTS OF IMPORTANT DECISIONS


-A SERIOUS THREAT FOR TURKS AND

- AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FOREIGNERS -


IS HERE TO STAY FOR A LONG TIME


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... - - - ... S O S ... - - - ...

TURKEY NOW NEEDS (EACH YEAR !)

5 BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR (at least)

TO INVEST IN ELECTRICITY FOR THE NEXT 23 YEARS

YEAR 2000...................Expected generating capacity......................26,000 MW
YEAR 2023.....................Estimated capacity need..........................140,000 MW

YEAR 2000.....................Estimated Consumption..........................105 TWh/y
YEAR 2023......................... " " .......................................600 TWh/y



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THEORETICAL WIND MILL CAPACITY OF TURKEY

Country area 774,815 sq.km.

77,481,500 hectares

%1 of land and 10 hectares for each wind mill

Taking 3 zeros off

77,481 wind mills can be erected.


Averaging 1,500 kW/tower for the next 23 years

Total theoretical installed capacity

Becomes

116,000 MW





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THE FIRST WIND BOT PROJECT STORY

7.2 MW 12*600 kW VESTAS STARTED PRODUCTION IN ALACATI AUTUMN 1998

1. INTELLIGENT INFORMATION SUPPLY PERIOD AGAINST THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM -UTOPIA PERIOD
2. CONVINCING AN IMPORTANT PERSON TO BE YOUR ALLY

THE RIGHT HONORABLE STEVE J. ANDREWS GEN.MAN.OF LOCKHEED/MARTIN A MAN OF VISION WITH DEEP UNDERSTANDING OF TURKISH AFFAIRS BACKED OUR IDEA IN TURKEY AND ABROAD BY SUPPORTING US IN THE NEGOTIATIONS. MR. MEHMET HANAGASIOGLU OF INTERWIND HAS ALSO PROVEN STRONG IN CHARACTER WITHOUT WAVERING DURING THOSE VERY DIFFICULT NEGOTIATION YEARS PRIOR TO THE "ARES" B.O.T. PERMISSION.

I WOULD ALSO REMIND HERE THAT OUR RESPECTFUL FRIENDS DEMIRER FAMILY WHO HELPED TO BREAK ANOTHER BARRIER BY FIRST INSTALLING 3 ENERCON MILLS AS AUTO-PRODUCER NEXT TO OUR SITE A FEW MONTHS BEFORE"ARES" OPERATED. THIS HAD A POSITIVE PYSCHOLOGICAL EFFECT FOR SHOWING THAT WIND GENERATORS ARE NOT TOYS...IT IS A SERIOUS BUSINESS.

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LOBBYING

FOR WIND

--WEAK LOBBY PERIOD--

A 55 kW VESTAS IN GOLDEN DOLPHIN HOTEL IN CESME AND

2 WIND FARMS IN ALACATI UNTIL THE END OF 1998



BUT IT IS DIFFERENT NOW -WE ARE MORE PEOPLE AND WE HAVE UNDENIABLE FACTS IN HAND.

BEING IN THE CROSSWAY OF GAS AND OIL DOES NOT MAKE IT AVAILABLE TO US FREE OF CHARGE.


FOSSIL FUEL DEPENDENCY IS ENDANGERING OUR SOVEREIGNTY


WIND ENERGY HAS BECOME A SYMBOL OF RESPECT TO THE ENVIRONMENT . 4% FREE SHARES GIVEN TO THE LOCAL MUNICIPALITY BY "ARES" MADE THE WIND MILLS EVER SO FRIENDLY

WIND ENERGY REDUCES THE PETROLEUM EXPENSES

NEW INVESTMENT NEED IN ELECTRICITY PLUS THE FUEL EXPENSES MAKE IT BETTER TO INVEST IN WIND

WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL IS 2-3 TIMES MORE THAN THE CURRENT ELECTRICITY USED IN TURKEY IN 1998

IF PROPERLY PLANNED 1/3 OF ELECTRICITY OF TURKEY IN YEAR 2023 COULD BE SUPPLIED FROM WIND

WIND ENERGY PROJECTS SHOULD BE B.O. -BUILD OPERATE -WE MUST SAVE TIME IN NEGOTIATIONS

THERE IS NO EU COUNTRY THAT HAS AVAILABLE LAND TO INSTALL 100,000 WIND MILLS


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THIS IS EQUAL TO A CAPACITY OF OVER 60 NUCLEAR PLANTS OF 1,500 MW EACH

100,000 WIND MILLS IS EQUIVALENT TO 100 BILLION DOLLARS AND WORK FOR MILLIONS OF PEOPLE

EXTRA WORK FOR FARMING AND ANIMAL HUSBANDRY UNDERNEATH THE WIND MILLS

HYBRID PLANTS OF GAS AND WIND WILL HAVE MUCH LOWER POLLUTION THAN PURE GAS TURBINES

NEW TECHNOLOGIES LIKE HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELL FOR STORAGE OF ELECTRICITY WILL ADVANCE

TO EXTRACT HYDROGEN FROM BLACK SEA.

WIND, PHOTOVOLTAIC, SOLAR AND GEOTHERMAL COMBINATION SYSTEMS ...


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ELIMINATING THE WIND ENERGY FEARS
WHAT DO WE DO WHEN THERE IS NO WIND?
HYBRID SYSTEMS WILL BE MADE. THERE ARE EXAMPLES ELSEWHERE THAT WORKS.

WIND FARMS WILL BE SPREAD ALL AROUND THE COUNTRY WHICH HELPS THE GRID.

METEOROLOGY WILL WORK IN CLOSE COORDINATION WITH THE ENERGY MINISTRY
IF NECESSARY METEOROLOGY WILL FUNCTION UNDER THE ENERGY MINISTRY.

ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION PLANNING SHOULD BE REVISED TO CONSIDER WIND ENERGY.




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ASK EU FOR FUNDS TO REINFORCE OUR GRID TO PROMOTE WIND ENERGY

PROMOTE 1000 MW WIND ENERGY / GAS HYBRID PLANTS


CULTIVATE THE UNIVERSITIES AS ALLIES -HAVE WIND FARMS FOR UNIVERSITIES AND TECHNOPARKS IN TURKEY FOR CASH FLOW AND EDUCATION OF TECHNICAL PEOPLE


OFF-SET RESOURCES OF $10 BILLION IS IN THE AGENDA WAITING FOR OUR LOBBY

MORE IDEAS HOPEFULLY WILL BE DEVELOPED DURING THIS WORKSHOP



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LIMITATIONS OF CURRENT ENERGY PLANNING-DANGERS SHOULD BE MADE UNDENIABLY VISIBLE.

WHAT WE ARE TRYING TO BRING FORWARD IS ONE OF THE INGREDIENTS TO SURVIVE AS A SOVEREIGN STATE.

THE LOBBY SHOULD BE MADE IN SUCH A WAY THAT EVEN THE CYNICS SHOULD FIND IT DIFFICULT TO DISTORT THE FACTS. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED.



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POLITICIANS ARE NOT FULLY AWARE OF THE FACTS TO REALIZE THE DANGER. SPO IS NOT INFORMED WIDELY AND CORRECTLY.

PRESIDENT OF TURKEY AND MILITARY IS NOT FULLY INFORMED OF THE IMMEDIATE DANGER AND ITS CONSEQUENCES.

1998 TUSIAD REPORT IS NOT READ AND UNDERSTOOD WELL.

EXTENSIVE WORK OF DR. T.S. UYAR ON RENEWABLE ENERGY MODEL IS NOT EVALUATED WELL.


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SARIGERME IS A SUITABLE ENVIRONMENT HELPING TO IDENTIFY SYMPTOMS AND REMEDIES.
CONSENSUS IS BETTER, BUT NOT ESSENTIAL.

LOBBY IS NOT AN OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.

SOME OF THE FOLLOWING ISSUES NEED IMMEDIATE ATTENTION AT ALL LEVELS.


LEGAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE OBSTRUCTIONS IS GROWN TO AFULL SIZE DEVIL'S TREE.

TIME TO CUT IT OFF

"DEVIL TREE" CANNOT BE PRUNED.



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25%IRR SHOULD BE GIVEN TO WIND INVESTMENTS FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS OR SO.

CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE THE VISION. NOT THE PRICE BARGAINING OF TO DAY.

WITHIN THE DECLARED IRR DIFFERENT STEP PRICES SHOULD BE POSSIBLE.

B.O. INSTEAD OF B.O.T. WITH CLEARLY IDENTIFIED STRUCTURE.

TEAS AND TEDAS. ENERGY DISTRIBUTION

WIND, GEOTHERMAL, SOLAR, AND HYBRID IDEAS? WHAT SHOULD WE BE DOING

FOR HYDROGEN ENERGY?


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NUCLEAR IS OVEREMPHASIZED FOR ENERGY. IS IT A TROYAN HORSE FOR WEAPONS?

IF WE ARE SURE IT IS A TROYAN HORSE THEN THERE ARE REMEDIES FOR IT. BUT WE MUST BE OPEN.

GRID CONNECTIONS AS WELL AS REINFORCEMENTS INSIDE THE COUNTRY AND TO THE NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES.

LOWERING %18 OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY LOSSES


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URGENT LOBBY SUMMARY
WE ARE EITHER CHANGING THE ATTITUDE AND LEGAL OBSTRUCTIONS OR FACING A CATASTROPHE.

THERE IS NOTHING MORE IMPORTANT THAN THIS ISSUE IN TURKEY TODAY.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO START LOBBY WITH THE NEW PRESIDENT OF TURKEY.

PREVIOUSLY HE MIGHT HAVE BEEN INSUFFICIENTLY OR EVEN NEGATIVELY INFORMED ON THE ISSUE.

HOPEFULLY NOT -WE DO NOT KNOW-

ALSO SAME PRESENTATION TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL,

PARALLEL LOBBY TO THE PRIME MINISTER -PARLIAMENT SHOULD START ASAP.


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MINISTRY OF ENERGY SHOULD CHANGE THE WRONG ATTITUDE OF ACTING LIKE A MERCHANT.
URGENCY REQUESTS A MORE FUTURISTICALLY RESPONSIBLE INSTITUTION.
NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE INDEPENDENCE OF TURKEY IN FUTURE.
ENERGY CRISIS IS ON A FAST LANE TO JEOPARDIZE THIS VERY ESSENTIAL BEING.




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CV

ERGUN OZAKAT
Born 3 April 1935

Engineering College in London 1954 -1959 . Apprenticeship Germany. Military -1960 Lieutenant Nato. BS. Electronics through correspondence.

Experience: Manager-increasing local content of BMC truck manufacturing from 10% to 38% during 1964 -1966 . R&D manager of Ozakat group of companies. Joint patent for automotive alternator and electronic regulator . Up to 4 kW wind mill prototypes used for summer home. Establish Viking Paper company from concept to success in 1969. Board Member of Egebank and Board membership in industrial companies till retiring in 1991. Have attended several management courses and seminars during the 35 years of active work.

Founder and member of some of the associations and foundations. TÜSİAD from the first day involvement. Continue working on Lobby matters of Wind energy and Technology Innovation Zones. Founder member of Clean Energy Foundation. Founder Member of Ege Technology Foundation - web site of 130 pages. Had successfull Lobby: Re-evaluation of assets and stock dividends- was nearly a single handed lobby success story 1983, wireless law jointly made lobby, now actively involved in lobby work for wind energy and technoparks in Turkey. Publications: Automotive manufacturer' s handbook, in 1965, in 1986 Radio Amateur technical handbook, in 1992 Technoparks English/Turkish book, several articles in different magazines, 32 min. technology innovation video . Active at the moment to establish the technology zone in Alacati Izmir - The World's first Environmental Technology Zone with living/working life style together to create critical mass in brain and synergetical environment for innovations. As a venture capitalist have a leading hand in the graduate student company " Entropy " . This is the first prototype model of the Ozakat Incubator idea and is planned to go public as IPO in 2001/2002.

My biggest aim in life is to be part of the above activities in such a manner that one day to get the mentioned environment to be so creative as to induce and pursue ideas worthy of a Nobel Price in our region.

Happily married to a Dane over 40 years. Have 2 children. Since 15 years serving as Honorary Consul of Finland in Izmir.
Tlf: +(90) 533 259 5160......e-mail: Ergun Ozakat


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